Fewer launches, pricing pressures in US to affect pharma's 

Q4 show Analysts predict the March quarter will be tough with revenue growth moderating to 5-6 percent owing to the absence of any significant launches and pricing pressure in US, which accounts for half their sales As Indian drug makers brace for fourth quarter earnings in the days ahead, analysts predict the March quarter will be tough with revenue growth moderating to 5-6 percent owing to the absence of any significant launches and pricing pressure in US, which accounts for half their sales. Here are some key factors that may influence earnings of Indian drug makers:Pricing pressure and rupee strengthening in US market: One of the key factors to look out for in the fourth quarter is the extent of price deflation of generic drugs that has eaten into the base business. Analysts say the base business erosion ranges anywhere between high single digit to low double digits. The worrying aspect is that it is accelerating on account of consolidation of the distribution channel and rising competition. Another concerning aspect is the unexpected sharp appreciation of the rupee since the Uttar Pradesh poll results. 

Fortamet is expected to be under pressure in the fourth quarter owing to increased competition, thought the slide will be partially offset by launches such as generic oral contraceptive Minastrin launch and continued growth in Methergine. US revenues will continue to see a decline in fourth quarter earnings on account of additional competition in generic anticancer drug Vidaza and antiviral Valcyte. Aurobindo is expected to register a 7 percent growth in the US generic business, led by a pick-up in injectable products. Cipla is may see its US business get a boost due to its acquisition of Invagen and Exelon.Alembic Pharma are the companies to watch out for given their exclusivity for Zetia (cholesterol lowering drug) and Tamiflu (antiviral), which were launched in December are expected to show their full revenue potential in the fourth quarter January-March period has been busy period with series of US FDA inspections and actions that brought cheer for some and further heartburn for other companies. Sun Pharma, which was struggling with regulatory issues at its key Halol plant in Gujarat, received some good news with US FDA revoking its earlier import ban on Mohali formulation facility it acquired from Ranbaxy’s buyout. too successfully cleared US FDA audit for its Goa plant. 

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